What is a common method to establish predictive validity?

The method of assessing scores against a future criterion is foundational for establishing predictive validity. Predictive validity measures how well a test predicts future performance based on scores obtained from that test. To evaluate this, test scores are compared to some outcome or criterion that occurs after the test is administered. For example, if a test is designed to predict a student's future success in a particular field or occupation, researchers would gather data on students' subsequent performance in that area and compare it to their initial test scores. A strong correlation between the two would indicate high predictive validity.

In contrast, other methods mentioned, such as looking at current performance or examining population variance, do not provide the necessary future-oriented perspective required to establish predictive validity. Specifically, current performance comparisons reflect concurrent validity rather than predictive validity. Similarly, examining how scores change across different populations can shed light on differential validity, while content coverage relates to the test's construct validity. These approaches, while valuable in their own right, do not focus on the relationship between test scores and future outcomes needed to define predictive validity accurately.