What does predictive validity assess in a test?

Predictive validity assesses how well a test forecasts future performance based on the results it yields. It measures the extent to which scores on the test can predict how test-takers will perform on criteria that are longitudinally relevant, such as academic achievements or job performance following the test.

For instance, if a particular test is meant to evaluate students' potential to succeed in a specific academic field, predictive validity indicates how effectively the test scores relate to students' future grades or success rates in that field. This aspect is crucial in educational and psychological assessment, as it assures stakeholders that the test is not just measuring knowledge or skills at a single moment but is also a reliable indicator of future outcomes.

In contrast, options that focus solely on content accuracy, popularity, or demographic factors do not capture the essence of predictive validity, as they are unrelated to how well a test predicts future performance based on current results.